Hello everyone,  

Welcome to the 191st edition of The Pattern, our weekly newsletter where we unpack what’s happening across finance, tech, and the economy. 

You’ve probably heard the saying — if it’s not broken, don’t fix it. That pretty much summarises this week’s MPC meeting. 

The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained its neutral stance, exactly in line with expectations. If your reaction was “okay… and?”, you’re not alone. 

This was one of those policy meetings where the outcome felt decided before the first PowerPoint slide was presented. Inflation is behaving as it should, staying within the RBI’s tolerance band. Growth hasn’t thrown up anything worrying. There was no obvious pressure point demanding action. Which is why the RBI didn’t try to invent one. 

This was also the first policy review after Budget 2026 — a moment that often invites some sort of response, even if symbolic. This time, there was no such impulse. Inflation barely dominated the discussion, and aside from a mild warning, the tone around prices was noticeably calmer than it has been in recent years. Given where things stand today, that made sense.  And it’s a contrast from periods where inflation drowned out almost everything else. 
 
Growth got similar treatment. The RBI reiterated that economic activity remains steady, without trying too hard to sell the idea or defend it. No projections or anxious explanations. 

The only part of the statement that really stood out to me was liquidity. Instead of focusing on where rates might go next, the RBI spent more time talking about managing conditions in the system and ensuring policy transmission. This suggests that the RBI is paying attention to how things are developing, without feeling the need to make any sudden, major moves. 

The markets seemed comfortable with that. Stocks dipped slightly, the rupee moved around, and then things settled... no proper reaction either way. 

However, it helps to zoom out. Central banks globally are in a similar holding pattern. Inflation has cooled, but confidence hasn’t fully returned.  Being early on big policy moves has become a risky gamble. 

India’s MPC felt very much in step with that broader hesitation. 

So, what’s the takeaway from a meeting where nothing really happened? 

The RBI seems reasonably comfortable with where things stand. Comfortable enough to avoid forcing a narrative. It doesn’t see inflation demanding action. It doesn’t see growth needing support. And it doesn’t feel the need to pre-commit to what comes next. 

That might sound boring. But after years of reacting to shocks, volatility, and sudden shifts, a central bank willing to sit on its hands for a bit is, dare I say, a good sign. 

This week, the RBI seemed comfortable doing exactly that. And that probably tells us more than any rate cut would have! 

Reading list 

• From UPI to MSMEs: Why credit is the backbone of India’s economic transformation 

• India Regulator Mulls Supervision Revamp for Banks to Curb Risks 

• After The Boom: Why India’s UPI Players Are Under Strain 

• India must boost capital markets so Indians grow with economy: Larry Fink, chief executive, BlackRock 

That’s all for this week. See you next time!   
 
If you liked this edition, please forward it to friends, colleagues, and your network. Do encourage them to subscribe as well. You can also follow FinBox on LinkedIn and myself on X to keep up with all the updates.        
    
Cheers, 
Mayank