Welcome to the 184th edition of The Pattern, a weekly newsletter where we dive into the latest from the world of economy, finance and technology. Let’s get into it!  
 
UPI won the war for daily payments long ago. Credit cards, meanwhile, quietly carved out their space for bigger spends. But this week, something changed. Two seemingly unrelated developments revealed what happens when those worlds stop competing and start merging. 

The first was a report showing a clear shift in consumer payment behaviour: credit cards are increasingly being used for high-value purchases, while UPI dominates everyday transactions. Debit cards continue to decline. 

Second: Google announced a co-branded, UPI-linked credit card with Axis Bank, letting users pay through UPI while drawing on credit instead of balances. 

If you put those two headlines next to each other, it’s easy to see what’s happening. Payments and credit aren’t separate tracks anymore. They’re converging

— not because banks want them to, but because consumer behaviour is pulling them together. 

A convergence driven from the ground up 

Consumers didn’t wait for financial institutions to redesign products. They voted with usage: 

• Tap UPI for convenience, speed, no barriers 

• Use credit cards where the cost, risk, or reward is higher 

• Abandon debit cards because they increasingly solve neither problem 

  
  

That left a gap: credit experiences that feel as seamless as UPI. 

Google’s UPI-linked credit card is an early signal of how lenders will respond: instead of trying to change consumer behaviour, they’ll embed credit where that behaviour already lives. 

UPI isn’t just infrastructure anymore. It’s becoming the delivery rail for the next layer of financial products. 

Why this matters 

Credit card use in India remains low compared with other markets, and even as credit transactions grow, they’ve yet to become a mainstream payment method for most people. 

UPI-linked credit changes that equation: 

• Credit becomes invisible, not a separate step. 

• Issuers get richer data from high-frequency spending patterns. 

• Underwriting can move from static limits to dynamic, usage-based decisions. 

• Collections may shift toward micro-repayment nudges instead of fixed billing cycles. 

If this model takes off, India could see credit becoming part of everyday UPI payments, rather than relying on traditional cards growing first.  It also alters how risk is priced and managed, and how consumers experience borrowing. Credit no longer competes with payments; it rides the same rail. 

Beneath the surface 

UPI flattened the payment experience. Now, the next battle is being fought underneath that surface: who will reshape the credit experience inside those same payment pipes? 

The players who master underwriting and risk for  every day, high-frequency transactions will define the next chapter of consumer credit  — not the ones obsessed with card distribution or rewards. 

The mechanics of credit haven’t changed. They’re just getting folded into payment flows we barely think about. And that shift will matter long after this week’s headlines fade. 
 
 
 
Reading list: 

• No single player can solve India’s credit needs: Google Pay’s Sharath Bulusu 

•  India’s data-sharing model can help unlock credit for the ‘last billion’ 

• India’s Big-Bang Financial Reforms Target Foreign Money 

• Rupee At Rs 95? What's Driving The Drop And Why The RBI May Not Hold The Line 
   

  
  

That’s all for this week. Have a Merry  Christmas, and I’ll see you next time. 
 
If you liked this edition, please forward it to friends, colleagues, and your network. Do encourage them to subscribe as well. You can also follow FinBox on LinkedIn and myself on X to keep up with all the updates.     
 
Cheers, 

Mayank