Hello,

Walk through Okhla or Peenya on a weekday afternoon and you will meet the real Indian economy. Welding sparks, courier boys, traders on Bluetooth calls, CA firms with seven spreadsheets open at once. This zone reacts fastest to any market shock. Export orders shrink. Container prices jump. Payment cycles stretch. SME owners respond with a shrug that says “chalta hai” on the outside and “yeh toh mushkil hai” on the inside. 

Most panel discussions skip this part. They jump straight to AI. Faster underwriting. Smarter workflows. Zero paperwork. Sounds great in a ballroom with orchids on the tables. Meanwhile, a factory owner in Naraina wonders if payment from his European buyer will arrive before he must pay his own vendor. That tension captures the current moment better than any keynote. 

How the global AI narrative collides with Indian SME reality 

Global finance gatherings spent the season praising AI. Better models. Faster decisions. Cleaner data. In quieter rooms during the same events, founders, bankers and analysts grumbled about SMEs feeling pressure from shifting trade patterns. India stands between those two worlds. Domestic demand appears steady enough; exporters face turbulence from freight issues, tariffs, and geopolitics. 

Fintech leaders pitch AI with conviction. Automatic document reading. Pattern-spotting underwriters. Self-learning risk engines. In private, the same leaders acknowledge a simpler truth. AI smooths friction. But demand arises from policy, logistics, sentiment, and trade winds. SMEs run on customers and working capital. AI strengthens the second. The first follows the real economy.  

Why AI is entering its practical phase 

This tension shapes how AI evolves inside financial services. The circus era of AI hype has given way to a more grounded era where leadership teams discuss validation and governance with straight faces. Boards ask how a model reached a conclusion. Risk teams check inputs with the energy of an income tax officer on the last day of filing season. Regulators request transparency in calm tones that signal serious intent. 

This evolution improves outcomes. AI gains value once it stops performing for crowds and starts crunching through cash flows, invoices and repayment patterns. Banks and NBFCs benefit through early detection of trouble, faster onboarding, and fewer repetitive chores. SMEs benefit through quicker decisions and less paperwork that ruins weekends. 

What SMEs actually care about 
Small business owners measure life in payment cycles. Payroll on the 7th. Rent on the 10th. Vendor settlement on the 15th. A buyer who pays on time earns loyalty. A buyer who pays after sixty days earns a polite smile and a silent scream. Discussions about model accuracy feel distant when liquidity serves as the only oxygen. 

Any fintech player chasing this segment must respect that calculus. Experiments and dashboards matter only when they keep the business alive without pledging family gold. 

Where fintech sits in a shifting supply chain world 

This context clarifies fintech’s role. Commentators love the story of fintech versus banks. Reality feels less adversarial. Banks hold balance sheets and regulatory trust. Marketplaces, ERPs, payroll systems, and invoicing tools hold transaction context. Fintech firms serve as the glue in between. 

This glue gains value when supply chains redraw themselves, and exporters search for new customers. Marketplace financing that works off order books, invoice-backed credit that follows receivables, working capital embedded inside business software, seasonal monitoring for high-variance sectors and collections guided by data instead of threats all land in this category. Nothing flashy. Very useful. 

From speed toward situational awareness 

For a decade, fintech innovation celebrated speed. Onboarding in minutes. KYC in seconds. Credit in hours. A useful phase for the ecosystem. The next phase carries a different idea: awareness. Financial systems that understand local context 

Banks supply capital. Fintech firms' surface intelligence. Platforms observe real commerce. A small improvement in visibility can change an entire borrower segment. I remember a lender discovering recurring revenue signals in a category he once avoided. No ten-month transformation project. No new department. One insight. Large effect. 

The three currents shaping the next cycle 

• Clarity through AI 

  Models spotting stress patterns early enough for a phone call that prevents a crisis. 

• Distribution through platforms 

  Capital flowing through the software layer closest to SME activity. 

• Confidence through governance 

  Institutions trusting AI because the logic makes sense; the audits work and accountability exists. 

These currents reinforce each other without fanfare. 

What AI actually fixes inside credit infrastructure 

At this point a basic question surfaces. If AI cannot summon demand, where does the value lie for fintech and SMEs. The answer lives inside the plumbing. Models sift through bank data to catch seasonal dips before they turn into defaults. Invoice patterns reveal which buyers stretch payments.

Cash flow signals prompt lenders to refine terms rather than abandon relationships. These mechanisms seldom earn headlines yet they keep businesses alive. Distributors receive money before shipments, borrowers glide through slow quarters, lenders avoid panic write-offs and employees keep their salaries on time. Journalists chase futuristic AI predictions while the present improves quietly through algorithms that study money in motion.  

Closing loop 

India enters a stage where financial intelligence carries weight equal to capital. Global chatter around AI favors grand stories of speed and disruption. The Indian version favors resilience, context and timely support.

 When lenders, fintech firms and platforms cooperate, SMEs gain days or weeks of runway. Extra runway keeps payroll on schedule. Payroll keeps households steady. Household stability keeps the economy sane. That chain matters far more than any headlines.  

Cheers,  

Srijan Nagar
Co-founder
FinBox