Welcome to the 196th edition of The Pattern – a weekly newsletter on the latest in finance, technology, and the economy.
 
My local Udupi joint has removed dosas from its menu – and from the looks of it, it may shut down completely in the next couple of days.

The National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) has asked its 500,000 member restaurants to shorten operating hours, rethink dishes that require long simmering or deep frying, and adopt measures like cooking with lids to conserve LPG.

It's an interesting reminder of how global events move through an economy.

A conflict thousands of kilometers away feels abstract till energy markets get involved. Supply routes become uncertain, insurance costs climb, shipments get delayed, and prices start shifting long before anything physically runs out.

India, unfortunately, sits at the receiving end of that system.

The country imports a large share of its LPG. When global supply tightens, domestic markets have to adjust. Household consumption has been prioritised, which means commercial users often are feeling the heat. Restaurants, catering businesses, and food vendors are scrambling to make alternative arrangements.

On the surface, it’s a logistics problem. Dig deeper, and a complex picture comes forward.

Energy prices have a way of travelling quickly through the economy. When LPG becomes more expensive to import, the costs start spreading outward. Restaurants raise prices to protect margins. Small food businesses adjust their rates. Street vendors increase what they charge for everyday meals. Taken together, they push the cost of daily consumption upward.

In a nutshell, that’s how an energy shock turns into inflation.

Central banks pay close attention to this chain reaction because fuel prices rarely stay confined to the energy sector. Once businesses start adjusting prices, the effects ripple through multiple industries. Transport costs move. Food prices shift. Everyday services become slightly more expensive. 

Over time those small adjustments begin to show up in inflation data.

For the Reserve Bank of India, that matters. If energy-driven inflation starts picking up again, the central bank has fewer reasons to cut interest rates. Borrowing costs across the economy stay higher for longer. Loans remain expensive and business credit becomes harder to justify.

A disruption in global energy markets can therefore travel surprisingly far through the financial system. The chain reaction starts in energy markets and slowly works its way through the economy until it lands on the RBI’s desk.
 
All of that sits behind the small moment where a restaurant kitchen worries about whether the stove will turn on tomorrow.

Macroeconomics often feels distant when we talk about it in terms of inflation forecasts and central bank policy. But every so often the connection becomes very visible.  
 
This week, in Bangalore, it looks a lot like a dosa place hoping the next LPG delivery arrives on time.
 
That’s all for this week. See you next time! As always, leaving a reading list below.

Reading list 

• An attack on the world economy 

• Explainer: How persistently high oil prices could impact India's vulnerable economy 

• Rupee Nears 93, Inflation At 10-Month High: What It Means For Your Money 

• India's DPDP Countdown: How Fintech Firms Are Racing to Meet Compliance 

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Cheers,  
Mayank